Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!  Up ahead this week is the last big earnings week of the year so I was oping to do a spotlight on a few stocks for you all.  First up is Guess (GES).  Guess designs, markets, distributes and licenses apparel and accessories for men, women and children.  Guess both sells in standalone stores and through other retailers like Bloomingdales.  Guess is expected to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, December 4th.  Analysts estimate EPS will be $0.38 for the quarter.

If we were just talking about brands I like Guess? probably wouldn’t be up there.  But it is pretty much an earnings machine so it might be worth a look.  Guess has beat its consensus estimate for 12 of the last 16 quarters, including three consecutive big beats.  Average beat is a 23% positive surprise over estimates, while the three times it fell short of estimates it only did so by a couple pennies.  And in terms of trading, shares increased an average of 9.45% in the three days surrounding 10 of the last 16 quarterly announcements.  Here’s a more detailed view at the last four earnings announcements:

Fiscal
Quarter End
Date
Reported
Earnings
Per Share
Consensus
EPS Forecast
%
Surprise
Jul2013 08/28/2013 0.52 0.36 44.44
Apr2013 05/30/2013 0.14 0.08 75
Jan2013 03/20/2013 0.95 0.86 10.47
Oct2012 11/28/2012 0.43 0.44 -2.27
Just going based on history, and the positive reports of other similar retailers in November, this could be a good earnings play.  However, I don’t like it as a long-term buy since I’m not crazy about the clothes they sell or their growth prospects at the moment.  I’m planning to get in before earnings and get out within a day or two.
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